Friday, January 28, 2011
Friday, February 26, 2010
How to do forex trading
Trading foreign exchange is exciting and potentially very profitable, but there are also significant risk factors. It is crucially important that you fully understand the implications of margin trading and the particular pitfalls and opportunities that foreign exchange trading offers. On these pages, we offer you a brief introduction to the Forex markets as well as their participants and some strategies that you can apply. However, if you are ever in doubt about any aspect of a trade, you can always discuss the matter in-depth with one of our dealers. They are available 24 hours a day on the Saxo Bank online trading system, SaxoTrader.
The benchmark of its service is efficient execution, concise analysis and expertise – all achieved whilst maintaining an attractive and competitive cost structure. Today, Saxo Bank offers one of Europe's premier all-round services for trading in derivative products and foreign exchange. We count amongst our employees numerous dealers and analysts, each of whom has many years experience and a wide and varied knowledge of the markets – gained both in our home countries and in international financial centres. When trading foreign exchange, futures and other derivative products, we offer 24-hour service, extensive daily analysis, individual access to our Research & Analysis department for specific queries, and immediate execution of trades through our international network of banks and brokers. All at a price considerably lower than that which most companies and private investors normally have access to.
The combination of our strong emphasis on customer service, our strategy and trading recommendations, our strategic and individual hedging programmes, along with the availability to our clients of the latest news and information builds a strong case for trading an individual account through Saxo Bank.
Terms of trading are agreed individually depending on the volume of your transactions, but are generally much lower in cost when compared to banks and brokers. Your margin deposit can be cash or government securities, bank guarantees etc. Large corporate or institutional clients may be offered trading facilities on the strength of their balance sheet. The minimum deposit accepted for an individual trading account depends on the account type. Trade confirmations and real-time account overview are built into SaxoTrader, while further account information can be produced in accordance with your specific requirements.
The benchmark of its service is efficient execution, concise analysis and expertise – all achieved whilst maintaining an attractive and competitive cost structure. Today, Saxo Bank offers one of Europe's premier all-round services for trading in derivative products and foreign exchange. We count amongst our employees numerous dealers and analysts, each of whom has many years experience and a wide and varied knowledge of the markets – gained both in our home countries and in international financial centres. When trading foreign exchange, futures and other derivative products, we offer 24-hour service, extensive daily analysis, individual access to our Research & Analysis department for specific queries, and immediate execution of trades through our international network of banks and brokers. All at a price considerably lower than that which most companies and private investors normally have access to.
The combination of our strong emphasis on customer service, our strategy and trading recommendations, our strategic and individual hedging programmes, along with the availability to our clients of the latest news and information builds a strong case for trading an individual account through Saxo Bank.
Terms of trading are agreed individually depending on the volume of your transactions, but are generally much lower in cost when compared to banks and brokers. Your margin deposit can be cash or government securities, bank guarantees etc. Large corporate or institutional clients may be offered trading facilities on the strength of their balance sheet. The minimum deposit accepted for an individual trading account depends on the account type. Trade confirmations and real-time account overview are built into SaxoTrader, while further account information can be produced in accordance with your specific requirements.
Forex Trading Statistics
Trade Balance
The trade balance is a measure of the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods and services. The level of the trade balance and changes in exports and imports are widely followed by foreign exchange markets.
The trade balance is a major indicator of foreign exchange trends. Seen in isolation, measures of imports and exports are important indicators of overall economic activity in the economy.
It is often of interest to examine the trend growth rates for exports and imports separately. Trends in export activities reflect the competitive position of the country in question, but also the strength of economic activity abroad. Trends in import activity reflect the strength of domestic economic activity.
Typically, a nation that runs a substantial trade balance deficit has a weak currency due to the continued commercial selling of the currency. This can, however, be offset by financial investment flows for extended periods of time.
Gross Domestic Product
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity available. Reported quarterly, GDP growth is widely followed as the primary indicator of the strength of economic activity.
GDP represents the total value of a country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and the government.
As GDP reports are often subject to substantial quarter-to-quarter volatility and revisions, it is preferable to follow the indicator on a year-to-year basis. It can be valuable to follow the trend rate of growth in each of the major categories of GDP to determine the strengths and weaknesses in the economy.
A high GDP figure is often associated with the expectations of higher interest rates, which is frequently positive, at least in the short term, for the currency involved, unless expectations of increased inflation pressure is concurrently undermining confidence in the currency.
Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average level of prices of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. The monthly reported changes in CPI are widely followed as an inflation indicator.
The CPI is a primary inflation indicator because consumer spending accounts for nearly two-thirds of economic activity. Often, the CPI is followed but excludes the price of food and energy as these items are generally much more volatile than the rest of the CPI and can obscure the more important underlying trend.
Rising consumer price inflation is normally associated with the expectation of higher short term interest rates and may therefore be supportive for a currency in the short term. Nevertheless, a longer term inflation problem will eventually undermine confidence in the currency and weakness will follow.
Producer Price Index
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the average level of prices of a fixed basket of goods received in primary markets by producers. The monthly PPI reports are widely followed as an indication of commodity inflation.
The PPI is considered important because it accounts for price changes throughout the manufacturing sector.
The PPI is often followed but excludes the food and energy components as these items are normally much more volatile than the rest of the PPI and can therefore obscure the more important underlying trend.
Studying the PPI allows consideration of inflationary pressures that may be accumulating or receding, but have not yet filtered through to the finished goods prices.
A rising PPI is normally expected to lead to higher consumer price inflation and thereby to potentially higher short-term interest rates. Higher rates will often have a short term positive impact on a currency, although significant inflationary pressure will often lead to an undermining of the confidence in the currency involved.
Payroll Employment
Payroll employment is a measure of the number of people being paid as employees by non-farm business establishments and units of government. Monthly changes in payroll employment reflect the net number of new jobs created or lost during the month and changes are widely followed as an important indicator of economic activity.
Payroll employment is one of the primary monthly indicators of aggregate economic activity because it encompasses every major sector of the economy. It is also useful to examine trends in job creation in several industry categories because the aggregate data can mask significant deviations in underlying industry trends.
Large increases in payroll employment are seen as signs of strong economic activity that could eventually lead to higher interest rates that are supportive of the currency at least in the short term. If, however, inflationary pressures are seen as building, this may undermine the longer term confidence in the currency.
Durable Goods Orders
Durable Goods Orders are a measure of the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of change of such orders.
Levels of, and changes in, durable goods order are widely followed as an indicator of factory sector momentum.
Durable Goods Orders are a major indicator of manufacturing sector trends because most industrial production is done to order. Often, the indicator is followed but excludes Defence and Transportation orders because these are generally much more volatile than the rest of the orders and can obscure the more important underlying trend.
Durable Goods Orders are measured in nominal terms and therefore include the effects of inflation. Therefore the Durable Goods Orders should be compared to the trend growth rate in PPI to arrive at the real, inflation-adjusted Durable Goods Orders.
Rising Durable Goods Orders are normally associated with stronger economic activity and can therefore lead to higher short-term interest rates that are often supportive to a currency at least in the short term.
Retail Sales
Retail Sales are a measure of the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percentage changes reflect the rate of change of such sales and are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending.
Retails Sales are a major indicator of consumer spending because they account for nearly one-half of total consumer spending and approximately one-third of aggregate economic activity.
Often, Retail Sales are followed less auto sales because these are generally much more volatile than the rest of the Retail Sales and can therefore obscure the more important underlying trend.
Retail Sales are measured in nominal terms and therefore include the effects of inflation. Rising Retail Sales are often associated with a strong economy and therefore an expectation of higher short-term interest rates that are often supportive to a currency at least in the short term.
Housing Starts
Housing Starts are a measure of the number of residential units on which construction is begun each month and the level of housing starts is widely followed as an indicator of residential construction activity.
The indicator is followed to assess the commitment of builders to new construction activity. High construction activity is usually associated with increased economic activity and confidence, and is therefore considered a harbinger of higher short-term interest rates that can be supportive of the involved currency at least in the short term.
The trade balance is a measure of the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods and services. The level of the trade balance and changes in exports and imports are widely followed by foreign exchange markets.
The trade balance is a major indicator of foreign exchange trends. Seen in isolation, measures of imports and exports are important indicators of overall economic activity in the economy.
It is often of interest to examine the trend growth rates for exports and imports separately. Trends in export activities reflect the competitive position of the country in question, but also the strength of economic activity abroad. Trends in import activity reflect the strength of domestic economic activity.
Typically, a nation that runs a substantial trade balance deficit has a weak currency due to the continued commercial selling of the currency. This can, however, be offset by financial investment flows for extended periods of time.
Gross Domestic Product
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity available. Reported quarterly, GDP growth is widely followed as the primary indicator of the strength of economic activity.
GDP represents the total value of a country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and the government.
As GDP reports are often subject to substantial quarter-to-quarter volatility and revisions, it is preferable to follow the indicator on a year-to-year basis. It can be valuable to follow the trend rate of growth in each of the major categories of GDP to determine the strengths and weaknesses in the economy.
A high GDP figure is often associated with the expectations of higher interest rates, which is frequently positive, at least in the short term, for the currency involved, unless expectations of increased inflation pressure is concurrently undermining confidence in the currency.
Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average level of prices of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. The monthly reported changes in CPI are widely followed as an inflation indicator.
The CPI is a primary inflation indicator because consumer spending accounts for nearly two-thirds of economic activity. Often, the CPI is followed but excludes the price of food and energy as these items are generally much more volatile than the rest of the CPI and can obscure the more important underlying trend.
Rising consumer price inflation is normally associated with the expectation of higher short term interest rates and may therefore be supportive for a currency in the short term. Nevertheless, a longer term inflation problem will eventually undermine confidence in the currency and weakness will follow.
Producer Price Index
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the average level of prices of a fixed basket of goods received in primary markets by producers. The monthly PPI reports are widely followed as an indication of commodity inflation.
The PPI is considered important because it accounts for price changes throughout the manufacturing sector.
The PPI is often followed but excludes the food and energy components as these items are normally much more volatile than the rest of the PPI and can therefore obscure the more important underlying trend.
Studying the PPI allows consideration of inflationary pressures that may be accumulating or receding, but have not yet filtered through to the finished goods prices.
A rising PPI is normally expected to lead to higher consumer price inflation and thereby to potentially higher short-term interest rates. Higher rates will often have a short term positive impact on a currency, although significant inflationary pressure will often lead to an undermining of the confidence in the currency involved.
Payroll Employment
Payroll employment is a measure of the number of people being paid as employees by non-farm business establishments and units of government. Monthly changes in payroll employment reflect the net number of new jobs created or lost during the month and changes are widely followed as an important indicator of economic activity.
Payroll employment is one of the primary monthly indicators of aggregate economic activity because it encompasses every major sector of the economy. It is also useful to examine trends in job creation in several industry categories because the aggregate data can mask significant deviations in underlying industry trends.
Large increases in payroll employment are seen as signs of strong economic activity that could eventually lead to higher interest rates that are supportive of the currency at least in the short term. If, however, inflationary pressures are seen as building, this may undermine the longer term confidence in the currency.
Durable Goods Orders
Durable Goods Orders are a measure of the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of change of such orders.
Levels of, and changes in, durable goods order are widely followed as an indicator of factory sector momentum.
Durable Goods Orders are a major indicator of manufacturing sector trends because most industrial production is done to order. Often, the indicator is followed but excludes Defence and Transportation orders because these are generally much more volatile than the rest of the orders and can obscure the more important underlying trend.
Durable Goods Orders are measured in nominal terms and therefore include the effects of inflation. Therefore the Durable Goods Orders should be compared to the trend growth rate in PPI to arrive at the real, inflation-adjusted Durable Goods Orders.
Rising Durable Goods Orders are normally associated with stronger economic activity and can therefore lead to higher short-term interest rates that are often supportive to a currency at least in the short term.
Retail Sales
Retail Sales are a measure of the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percentage changes reflect the rate of change of such sales and are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending.
Retails Sales are a major indicator of consumer spending because they account for nearly one-half of total consumer spending and approximately one-third of aggregate economic activity.
Often, Retail Sales are followed less auto sales because these are generally much more volatile than the rest of the Retail Sales and can therefore obscure the more important underlying trend.
Retail Sales are measured in nominal terms and therefore include the effects of inflation. Rising Retail Sales are often associated with a strong economy and therefore an expectation of higher short-term interest rates that are often supportive to a currency at least in the short term.
Housing Starts
Housing Starts are a measure of the number of residential units on which construction is begun each month and the level of housing starts is widely followed as an indicator of residential construction activity.
The indicator is followed to assess the commitment of builders to new construction activity. High construction activity is usually associated with increased economic activity and confidence, and is therefore considered a harbinger of higher short-term interest rates that can be supportive of the involved currency at least in the short term.
Forex Trading Examples
Example 1
An investor has a margin deposit with Saxo Bank of USD 100,000.
The investor expects the US dollar to rise against the Swiss franc and therefore decides to buy USD 2,000,000 - 2% of his maximum possible exposure at a 1% margin Forex gearing.
The Saxo Bank dealer quotes him 1.5515-20. The investor buys USD at 1.5520.
Day 1: Buy USD 2,000,000 vs. CHF 1.5520 = Sell CHF 3,104,000.
Four days later, the dollar has actually risen to CHF 1.5745 and the investor decides to take his profit.
Upon his request, the Saxo Bank dealer quotes him 1.5745-50. The investor sells at 1.5745.
Day 5: Sell USD 2,000,000 vs. CHF 1.5745 = Buy CHF 3,149,000.
As the dollar side of the transaction involves a credit and a debit of USD 2,000,000, the investor's USD account will show no change. The CHF account will show a debit of CHF 3,104,000 and a credit of CHF 3,149,000. Due to the simplicity of the example and the short time horizon of the trade, we have disregarded the interest rate swap that would marginally alter the profit calculation.
This results in a profit of CHF 45,000 = approx. USD 28,600 = 28.6% profit on the deposit of USD 100,000.
Example 2:
The investor follows the cross rate between the EUR and the Japanese yen. He believes that this market is headed for a fall. As he is not quite confident of this trade, he uses less of the leverage available on his deposit. He chooses to ask the dealer for a quote in EUR 1,000,000. This requires a margin of EUR 1,000,000 x 5% = EUR 10,000 = approx. USD 52,500 (EUR /USD 1.05).
The dealer quotes 112.05-10. The investor sells EUR at 112.05.
Day 1: Sell EUR 1,000,000 vs. JPY 112.05 = Buy JPY 112,050,000.
He protects his position with a stop-loss order to buy back the EUR at 112.60. Two days later, this stop is triggered as the EUR o strengthens short term in spite of the investor's expectations.
Day 3: Buy EUR 1,000,000 vs. JPY 112.60 = Sell JPY 112,600,000.
The EUR side involves a credit and a debit of EUR 1,000,000. Therefore, the EUR account shows no change. The JPY account is credited JPY 112.05m and debited JPY 112.6m for a loss of JPY 0.55m. Due to the simplicity of the example and the short time horizon of the trade, we have disregarded the interest rate swap that would marginally alter the loss calculation.
This results in a loss of JPY 0.55m = approx. USD 5,300 (USD/JPY 105) = 5.3% loss on the original deposit of USD 100,000.
Example 3
The investor believes the Canadian dollar will strengthen against the US dollar. It is a long term view, so he takes a small position to allow for wider swings in the rate:
He asks Saxo Bank for a quote in USD 1,000,000 against the Canadian dollar. The dealer quotes 1.5390-95 and the investor sells USD at 1.5390. Selling USD is the equivalent of buying the Canadian dollar.
Day 1: Sell USD 1,000,000 vs. CAD 1.5390. He swaps the position out for two months receiving a forward rate of CAD 1.5357 = Buy CAD 1,535,700 for Day 61 due to the interest rate differential.
After a month, the desired move has occurred. The investor buys back the US dollars at 1.4880. He has to swap the position forward for a month to match the original sale. The forward rate is agreed at 1.4865.
Day 31: Buy USD 1,000,000 vs. CAD 1.4865 = Sell CAD 1,486,500 for Day 61.
Day 61: The two trades are settled and the trades go off the books. The profit secured on Day 31 can be used for margin purposes before Day 61.
The USD account receives a credit and debit of USD 1,000,000 and shows no change on the account. The CAD account is credited CAD 1,535,700 and debited CAD 1,486,500 for a profit of CAD 49,200 = approx. USD 33,100 = profit of 33.1% on the original deposit of USD 100,000.
An investor has a margin deposit with Saxo Bank of USD 100,000.
The investor expects the US dollar to rise against the Swiss franc and therefore decides to buy USD 2,000,000 - 2% of his maximum possible exposure at a 1% margin Forex gearing.
The Saxo Bank dealer quotes him 1.5515-20. The investor buys USD at 1.5520.
Day 1: Buy USD 2,000,000 vs. CHF 1.5520 = Sell CHF 3,104,000.
Four days later, the dollar has actually risen to CHF 1.5745 and the investor decides to take his profit.
Upon his request, the Saxo Bank dealer quotes him 1.5745-50. The investor sells at 1.5745.
Day 5: Sell USD 2,000,000 vs. CHF 1.5745 = Buy CHF 3,149,000.
As the dollar side of the transaction involves a credit and a debit of USD 2,000,000, the investor's USD account will show no change. The CHF account will show a debit of CHF 3,104,000 and a credit of CHF 3,149,000. Due to the simplicity of the example and the short time horizon of the trade, we have disregarded the interest rate swap that would marginally alter the profit calculation.
This results in a profit of CHF 45,000 = approx. USD 28,600 = 28.6% profit on the deposit of USD 100,000.
Example 2:
The investor follows the cross rate between the EUR and the Japanese yen. He believes that this market is headed for a fall. As he is not quite confident of this trade, he uses less of the leverage available on his deposit. He chooses to ask the dealer for a quote in EUR 1,000,000. This requires a margin of EUR 1,000,000 x 5% = EUR 10,000 = approx. USD 52,500 (EUR /USD 1.05).
The dealer quotes 112.05-10. The investor sells EUR at 112.05.
Day 1: Sell EUR 1,000,000 vs. JPY 112.05 = Buy JPY 112,050,000.
He protects his position with a stop-loss order to buy back the EUR at 112.60. Two days later, this stop is triggered as the EUR o strengthens short term in spite of the investor's expectations.
Day 3: Buy EUR 1,000,000 vs. JPY 112.60 = Sell JPY 112,600,000.
The EUR side involves a credit and a debit of EUR 1,000,000. Therefore, the EUR account shows no change. The JPY account is credited JPY 112.05m and debited JPY 112.6m for a loss of JPY 0.55m. Due to the simplicity of the example and the short time horizon of the trade, we have disregarded the interest rate swap that would marginally alter the loss calculation.
This results in a loss of JPY 0.55m = approx. USD 5,300 (USD/JPY 105) = 5.3% loss on the original deposit of USD 100,000.
Example 3
The investor believes the Canadian dollar will strengthen against the US dollar. It is a long term view, so he takes a small position to allow for wider swings in the rate:
He asks Saxo Bank for a quote in USD 1,000,000 against the Canadian dollar. The dealer quotes 1.5390-95 and the investor sells USD at 1.5390. Selling USD is the equivalent of buying the Canadian dollar.
Day 1: Sell USD 1,000,000 vs. CAD 1.5390. He swaps the position out for two months receiving a forward rate of CAD 1.5357 = Buy CAD 1,535,700 for Day 61 due to the interest rate differential.
After a month, the desired move has occurred. The investor buys back the US dollars at 1.4880. He has to swap the position forward for a month to match the original sale. The forward rate is agreed at 1.4865.
Day 31: Buy USD 1,000,000 vs. CAD 1.4865 = Sell CAD 1,486,500 for Day 61.
Day 61: The two trades are settled and the trades go off the books. The profit secured on Day 31 can be used for margin purposes before Day 61.
The USD account receives a credit and debit of USD 1,000,000 and shows no change on the account. The CAD account is credited CAD 1,535,700 and debited CAD 1,486,500 for a profit of CAD 49,200 = approx. USD 33,100 = profit of 33.1% on the original deposit of USD 100,000.
Forex Trading Basics
Forex Trading Basics
The global foreign exchange market is the biggest market in the world. The 3.2 trillion USD daily turnover dwarfs the combined turnover of all the world's stock and bond markets.
There are many reasons for the popularity of foreign exchange trading, but among the most important are the leverage available, the high liquidity 24 hours a day and the very low dealing costs associated with trading.
Of course many commercial organisations participate purely due to the currency exposures created by their import and export activities, but the main part of the turnover is accounted for by financial institutions. Investing in foreign exchange remains predominantly the domain of the big professional players in the market - funds, banks and brokers. Nevertheless, any investor with the necessary knowledge of the market's functions can benefit from the advantages stated above.
In the following article, we would like to introduce you to some of the basic concepts of foreign exchange trading. If you would like any further information, we suggest that you sign up for a FREE Membership on this website, where you will be able to exchange views with other Forex traders and get answers to any questions you might have.
Margin Trading
Foreign exchange is normally traded on margin. A relatively small deposit can control much larger positions in the market. For trading the main currencies, Saxo Bank requires a 1% margin deposit. This means that in order to trade one million dollars, you need to place just USD 10,000 by way of security.
In other words, you will have obtained a gearing of up to 100 times. This means that a change of, say 2%, in the underlying value of your trade will result in a 200% profit or loss on your deposit. See below for specific examples. As you can see, this calls for a very disciplined approach to trading as both profit opportunities and potential risks are very large indeed. Please refer to our page Forex Rates & Conditions for current Spreads, Margins and Conditions.
Base Currency and Variable Currency
When you trade, you will always trade a combination of two currencies. For example, you will buy US dollars and sell euro. Or buy euro and sell Japanese yen, or any other combination of dozens of widely traded currencies. But there is always a long (bought) and a short (sold) side to a trade, which means that you are speculating on the prospect of one of the currencies strengthening in relation to the other.
The trade currency is normally, but not always, the currency with the highest value. When trading US dollars against Singapore dollars, the normal way to trade is buying or selling a fixed amount of US dollars, i.e. USD 1,000,000. When closing the position, the opposite trade is done, again USD 1,000,000. The profit or loss will be apparent in the change of the amount of SGD credited and debited for the two transactions. In other words, your profit or loss will be denominated in SGD, which is known as the price currency. As part of our service, Saxo Bank will automatically exchange your profits and losses into your base currency if you require this.
Dealing Spread, but No Commissions
When trading foreign exchange, you are quoted a dealing spread offering you a buying and a selling level for your trade. Once you accept the offered price and receive confirmation from our dealers, the trade is done. There is no need to call an exchange floor. There are no other time-consuming delays. This is possible due to live streaming prices, which are also a great advantage in times of fast-moving markets: You can see where the market is trading and you know whether your orders are filled or not.
The dealing spread is typically 3-5 points in normal market conditions. This means that you can sell US dollars against the euro at 1.7780 and buy at 1.7785. There are no further costs, commissions or exchange fees.
This ensures that you can get in and out of your trades at very low slippage and many traders are therefore active intra-day traders, given that a typical day in USDEUR presents price swings of 150-200 points.
Spot and forward trading
When you trade foreign exchange you are normally quoted a spot price. This means that if you take no further steps, your trade will be settled after two business days. This ensures that your trades are undertaken subject to supervision by regulatory authorities for your own protection and security. If you are a commercial customer, you may need to convert the currencies for international payments. If you are an investor, you will normally want to swap your trade forward to a later date. This can be undertaken on a daily basis or for a longer period at a time. Often investors will swap their trades forward anywhere from a week or two up to several months depending on the time frame of the investment.
Although a forward trade is for a future date, the position can be closed out at any time - the closing part of the position is then swapped forward to the same future value date.
Interest Rate Differentials
Different currencies pay different interest rates. This is one of the main driving forces behind foreign exchange trends. It is inherently attractive to be a buyer of a currency that pays a high interest rate while being short a currency that has a low interest rate.
Although such interest rate differentials may not appear very large, they are of great significance in a highly leveraged position. For example, the interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen has been approximately 5% for several years. In a position that can be supported by a 5% margin deposit, this results in a 100% profit on capital per annum when you buy the US dollar. Of course, an even more important factor normally is the relative value of the currencies, which changed 15% from low to high during 2005 – disregarding the interest rate differential. From a pure interest rate differential viewpoint, you have an advantage of 100% per annum in your favour by being long US dollar and an initial disadvantage of the same size by being short.
Please refer to our page Forex Rates & Conditions for current Spreads, Margins and Conditions!
Such a situation clearly benefits the high interest rate currency and as result, the US dollar was in a strong bull market all through 2005. But it is by no means a certainty that the currency with the higher interest rate will be strongest. If the reason for the high interest rate is runaway inflation, this may undermine confidence in the currency even more than the benefits perceived from the high interest rate.
Stop-loss discipline
As you can see from the description above, there are significant opportunities and risks in foreign exchange markets. Aggressive traders might experience profit/loss swings of 20-30% daily. This calls for strict stop-loss policies in positions that are moving against you.
Fortunately, there are no daily limits on foreign exchange trading and no restrictions on trading hours other than the weekend. This means that there will nearly always be an opportunity to react to moves in the main currency markets and a low risk of getting caught without the opportunity of getting out. Of course, the market can move very fast and a stop-loss order is by no means a guarantee of getting out at the desired level.
But the main risk is really an event over the weekend, where all markets are closed. This happens from time to time as many important political events, such as G7 meetings, are normally scheduled for weekends.
For speculative trading, we always recommend the placement of protective stop-lossorders. With Saxo Bank Internet Trading you can easily place and change such orders while watching market development graphically on your computer screen.
The global foreign exchange market is the biggest market in the world. The 3.2 trillion USD daily turnover dwarfs the combined turnover of all the world's stock and bond markets.
There are many reasons for the popularity of foreign exchange trading, but among the most important are the leverage available, the high liquidity 24 hours a day and the very low dealing costs associated with trading.
Of course many commercial organisations participate purely due to the currency exposures created by their import and export activities, but the main part of the turnover is accounted for by financial institutions. Investing in foreign exchange remains predominantly the domain of the big professional players in the market - funds, banks and brokers. Nevertheless, any investor with the necessary knowledge of the market's functions can benefit from the advantages stated above.
In the following article, we would like to introduce you to some of the basic concepts of foreign exchange trading. If you would like any further information, we suggest that you sign up for a FREE Membership on this website, where you will be able to exchange views with other Forex traders and get answers to any questions you might have.
Margin Trading
Foreign exchange is normally traded on margin. A relatively small deposit can control much larger positions in the market. For trading the main currencies, Saxo Bank requires a 1% margin deposit. This means that in order to trade one million dollars, you need to place just USD 10,000 by way of security.
In other words, you will have obtained a gearing of up to 100 times. This means that a change of, say 2%, in the underlying value of your trade will result in a 200% profit or loss on your deposit. See below for specific examples. As you can see, this calls for a very disciplined approach to trading as both profit opportunities and potential risks are very large indeed. Please refer to our page Forex Rates & Conditions for current Spreads, Margins and Conditions.
Base Currency and Variable Currency
When you trade, you will always trade a combination of two currencies. For example, you will buy US dollars and sell euro. Or buy euro and sell Japanese yen, or any other combination of dozens of widely traded currencies. But there is always a long (bought) and a short (sold) side to a trade, which means that you are speculating on the prospect of one of the currencies strengthening in relation to the other.
The trade currency is normally, but not always, the currency with the highest value. When trading US dollars against Singapore dollars, the normal way to trade is buying or selling a fixed amount of US dollars, i.e. USD 1,000,000. When closing the position, the opposite trade is done, again USD 1,000,000. The profit or loss will be apparent in the change of the amount of SGD credited and debited for the two transactions. In other words, your profit or loss will be denominated in SGD, which is known as the price currency. As part of our service, Saxo Bank will automatically exchange your profits and losses into your base currency if you require this.
Dealing Spread, but No Commissions
When trading foreign exchange, you are quoted a dealing spread offering you a buying and a selling level for your trade. Once you accept the offered price and receive confirmation from our dealers, the trade is done. There is no need to call an exchange floor. There are no other time-consuming delays. This is possible due to live streaming prices, which are also a great advantage in times of fast-moving markets: You can see where the market is trading and you know whether your orders are filled or not.
The dealing spread is typically 3-5 points in normal market conditions. This means that you can sell US dollars against the euro at 1.7780 and buy at 1.7785. There are no further costs, commissions or exchange fees.
This ensures that you can get in and out of your trades at very low slippage and many traders are therefore active intra-day traders, given that a typical day in USDEUR presents price swings of 150-200 points.
Spot and forward trading
When you trade foreign exchange you are normally quoted a spot price. This means that if you take no further steps, your trade will be settled after two business days. This ensures that your trades are undertaken subject to supervision by regulatory authorities for your own protection and security. If you are a commercial customer, you may need to convert the currencies for international payments. If you are an investor, you will normally want to swap your trade forward to a later date. This can be undertaken on a daily basis or for a longer period at a time. Often investors will swap their trades forward anywhere from a week or two up to several months depending on the time frame of the investment.
Although a forward trade is for a future date, the position can be closed out at any time - the closing part of the position is then swapped forward to the same future value date.
Interest Rate Differentials
Different currencies pay different interest rates. This is one of the main driving forces behind foreign exchange trends. It is inherently attractive to be a buyer of a currency that pays a high interest rate while being short a currency that has a low interest rate.
Although such interest rate differentials may not appear very large, they are of great significance in a highly leveraged position. For example, the interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen has been approximately 5% for several years. In a position that can be supported by a 5% margin deposit, this results in a 100% profit on capital per annum when you buy the US dollar. Of course, an even more important factor normally is the relative value of the currencies, which changed 15% from low to high during 2005 – disregarding the interest rate differential. From a pure interest rate differential viewpoint, you have an advantage of 100% per annum in your favour by being long US dollar and an initial disadvantage of the same size by being short.
Please refer to our page Forex Rates & Conditions for current Spreads, Margins and Conditions!
Such a situation clearly benefits the high interest rate currency and as result, the US dollar was in a strong bull market all through 2005. But it is by no means a certainty that the currency with the higher interest rate will be strongest. If the reason for the high interest rate is runaway inflation, this may undermine confidence in the currency even more than the benefits perceived from the high interest rate.
Stop-loss discipline
As you can see from the description above, there are significant opportunities and risks in foreign exchange markets. Aggressive traders might experience profit/loss swings of 20-30% daily. This calls for strict stop-loss policies in positions that are moving against you.
Fortunately, there are no daily limits on foreign exchange trading and no restrictions on trading hours other than the weekend. This means that there will nearly always be an opportunity to react to moves in the main currency markets and a low risk of getting caught without the opportunity of getting out. Of course, the market can move very fast and a stop-loss order is by no means a guarantee of getting out at the desired level.
But the main risk is really an event over the weekend, where all markets are closed. This happens from time to time as many important political events, such as G7 meetings, are normally scheduled for weekends.
For speculative trading, we always recommend the placement of protective stop-lossorders. With Saxo Bank Internet Trading you can easily place and change such orders while watching market development graphically on your computer screen.
History of forex trading
Brief history of Forex trading
Initially, the value of goods was expressed in terms of other goods, i.e. an economy based on barter between individual market participants. The obvious limitations of such a system encouraged establishing more generally accepted means of exchange at a fairly early stage in history, to set a common benchmark of value. In different economies, everything from teeth to feathers to pretty stones has served this purpose, but soon metals, in particular gold and silver, established themselves as an accepted means of payment as well as a reliable storage of value.
Originally, coins were simply minted from the preferred metal, but in stable political regimes the introduction of a paper form of governmental IOUs (I owe you) gained acceptance during the Middle Ages. Such IOUs, often introduced more successfully through force than persuasion were the basis of modern currencies.
Before World War I, most central banks supported their currencies with convertibility to gold. Although paper money could always be exchanged for gold, in reality this did not occur often, fostering the sometimes disastrous notion that there was not necessarily a need for full cover in the central reserves of the government.
At times, the ballooning supply of paper money without gold cover led to devastating inflation and resulting political instability. To protect local national interests, foreign exchange controls were increasingly introduced to prevent market forces from punishing monetary irresponsibility.
In the latter stages of World War II, the Bretton Woods agreement was reached on the initiative of the USA in July 1944. The Bretton Woods Conference rejected John Maynard Keynes suggestion for a new world reserve currency in favour of a system built on the US dollar. Other international institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank and GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) were created in the same period as the emerging victors of WW2 searched for a way to avoid the destabilising monetary crises which led to the war. The Bretton Woods agreement resulted in a system of fixed exchange rates that partly reinstated the gold standard, fixing the US dollar at USD35/oz and fixing the other main currencies to the dollar - and was intended to be permanent.
The Bretton Woods system came under increasing pressure as national economies moved in different directions during the sixties. A number of realignments kept the system alive for a long time, but eventually Bretton Woods collapsed in the early seventies following president Nixon's suspension of the gold convertibility in August 1971. The dollar was no longer suitable as the sole international currency at a time when it was under severe pressure from increasing US budget and trade deficits.
The following decades have seen foreign exchange trading develop into the largest global market by far. Restrictions on capital flows have been removed in most countries, leaving the market forces free to adjust foreign exchange rates according to their perceived values.
But the idea of fixed exchange rates has by no means died. The EEC (European Economic Community) introduced a new system of fixed exchange rates in 1979, the European Monetary System. This attempt to fix exchange rates met with near extinction in 1992-93, when pent-up economic pressures forced devaluations of a number of weak European currencies. Nevertheless, the quest for currency stability has continued in Europe with the renewed attempt to not only fix currencies but actually replace many of them with the Euro in 2001.
The lack of sustainability in fixed foreign exchange rates gained new relevance with the events in South East Asia in the latter part of 1997, where currency after currency was devalued against the US dollar, leaving other fixed exchange rates, in particular in South America, looking very vulnerable.
But while commercial companies have had to face a much more volatile currency environment in recent years, investors and financial institutions have found a new playground. The size of foreign exchange markets now dwarfs any other investment market by a large factor. It is estimated that more than USD 3,000 billion is traded every day, far more than the world's stock and bond markets combined.
Initially, the value of goods was expressed in terms of other goods, i.e. an economy based on barter between individual market participants. The obvious limitations of such a system encouraged establishing more generally accepted means of exchange at a fairly early stage in history, to set a common benchmark of value. In different economies, everything from teeth to feathers to pretty stones has served this purpose, but soon metals, in particular gold and silver, established themselves as an accepted means of payment as well as a reliable storage of value.
Originally, coins were simply minted from the preferred metal, but in stable political regimes the introduction of a paper form of governmental IOUs (I owe you) gained acceptance during the Middle Ages. Such IOUs, often introduced more successfully through force than persuasion were the basis of modern currencies.
Before World War I, most central banks supported their currencies with convertibility to gold. Although paper money could always be exchanged for gold, in reality this did not occur often, fostering the sometimes disastrous notion that there was not necessarily a need for full cover in the central reserves of the government.
At times, the ballooning supply of paper money without gold cover led to devastating inflation and resulting political instability. To protect local national interests, foreign exchange controls were increasingly introduced to prevent market forces from punishing monetary irresponsibility.
In the latter stages of World War II, the Bretton Woods agreement was reached on the initiative of the USA in July 1944. The Bretton Woods Conference rejected John Maynard Keynes suggestion for a new world reserve currency in favour of a system built on the US dollar. Other international institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank and GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) were created in the same period as the emerging victors of WW2 searched for a way to avoid the destabilising monetary crises which led to the war. The Bretton Woods agreement resulted in a system of fixed exchange rates that partly reinstated the gold standard, fixing the US dollar at USD35/oz and fixing the other main currencies to the dollar - and was intended to be permanent.
The Bretton Woods system came under increasing pressure as national economies moved in different directions during the sixties. A number of realignments kept the system alive for a long time, but eventually Bretton Woods collapsed in the early seventies following president Nixon's suspension of the gold convertibility in August 1971. The dollar was no longer suitable as the sole international currency at a time when it was under severe pressure from increasing US budget and trade deficits.
The following decades have seen foreign exchange trading develop into the largest global market by far. Restrictions on capital flows have been removed in most countries, leaving the market forces free to adjust foreign exchange rates according to their perceived values.
But the idea of fixed exchange rates has by no means died. The EEC (European Economic Community) introduced a new system of fixed exchange rates in 1979, the European Monetary System. This attempt to fix exchange rates met with near extinction in 1992-93, when pent-up economic pressures forced devaluations of a number of weak European currencies. Nevertheless, the quest for currency stability has continued in Europe with the renewed attempt to not only fix currencies but actually replace many of them with the Euro in 2001.
The lack of sustainability in fixed foreign exchange rates gained new relevance with the events in South East Asia in the latter part of 1997, where currency after currency was devalued against the US dollar, leaving other fixed exchange rates, in particular in South America, looking very vulnerable.
But while commercial companies have had to face a much more volatile currency environment in recent years, investors and financial institutions have found a new playground. The size of foreign exchange markets now dwarfs any other investment market by a large factor. It is estimated that more than USD 3,000 billion is traded every day, far more than the world's stock and bond markets combined.
Forex Trading
Foreign Exchange
This short introduction explains the basics of trading Forex online, a brief explanation of the markets and the major benefits of trading Forex online. There are also two scenarios describing the implications of trading in a bear as well as a bull market to better acquaint you with some of the risks and opportunities of the largest and most liquid market in the world.
As an additional aid for those who are new to Forex, there is also a glossary at the bottom of this text which explains some of the terms used in connection with currency trading.
Overview
Foreign exchange, Forex or just FX are all terms used to describe the trading of the world's many currencies. The Forex market is the largest market in the world, with trades amounting to more than USD 3 trillion every day. Most Forex trading is speculative, with only a low percentage of market activity representing governments' and companies' fundamental currency conversion needs.
Unlike trading on the stock market, the Forex market is not conducted by a central exchange, but on the “interbank” market, which is thought of as an OTC (over the counter) market. Trading takes place directly between the two counterparts necessary to make a trade, whether over the telephone or on electronic networks all over the world. The main centres for trading are Sydney, Tokyo, London, Frankfurt and New York. This worldwide distribution of trading centres means that the Forex market is a 24-hour market.
Trading Forex
A currency trade is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another one. The currency combination used in the trade is called a cross (for example, the euro/US dollar, or the GB pound/Japanese yen.). The most commonly traded currencies are the so-called “majors” – EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF and GBPUSD.
The most important Forex market is the spot market as it has the largest volume. The market is called the spot market because trades are settled immediately, or “on the spot”. In practice this means two banking days.
Forward Outrights
For forward outrights, settlement on the value date selected in the trade means that even though the trade itself is carried out immediately, there is a small interest rate calculation left. The interest rate differential doesn't usually affect trade considerations unless you plan on holding a position with a large differential for a long period of time. The interest rate differential varies according to the cross you are trading. On the USDCHF, for example, the interest rate differential is quite small, whereas the differential on NOKJPY is large. This is because if you trade e.g. NOKJPY, you get almost 7% (annual) interest in Norway and close to 0% in Japan. So, if you borrow money in Japan, to finance the trade and buying NOK, you have a positive interest rate differential. This differential has to be calculated and added to your account. You can have both a positive and a negative interest rate differential, so it may work for or against you when you make a trade.
Trading on Margin
Trading on margin means that you can buy and sell assets that represent more value than the capital in your account. Forex trading is usually conducted with relatively small margin deposits. This is useful since it permits investors to exploit currency exchange rate fluctuations which tend to be very small. A margin of 1.0% means you can trade up to USD 1,000,000 even though you only have USD 10,000 in your account. A margin of 1% corresponds to a 100:1 leverage (or “gearing”). (Because USD 10,000 is 1% of USD 1,000,000.) Using this much leverage enables you to make profits very quickly, but there is also a greater risk of incurring large losses and even being completely wiped out. Therefore, it is inadvisable to maximise your leveraging as the risks can be very high. For more information on the trading conditions of Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your SaxoTrader and open the section entitled “Trading Conditions” found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.
Why Trade Forex?
24 hour trading
One of the major advantages of trading Forex is the opportunity to trade 24 hours a day from Sunday evening (20:00 GMT) to Friday evening (22:00 GMT). This gives you a unique opportunity to react instantly to breaking news that is affecting the markets.
Superior liquidity
The Forex market is so liquid that there are always buyers and sellers to trade with. The liquidity of this market, especially that of the major currencies, helps ensure price stability and narrow spreads. The liquidity comes mainly from banks that provide liquidity to investors, companies, institutions and other currency market players.
No commissions
The fact that Forex is often traded without commissions makes it very attractive as an investment opportunity for investors who want to deal on a frequent basis.
Trading the “majors” is also cheaper than trading other cross because of the high level of liquidity. For more information on the trading conditions of Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your SaxoTrader and open the section entitled “Trading Conditions” found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.
100:1 Leverage
Leverage (gearing) enables you to hold a position worth up to 100 times more than your margin deposit. For example, a USD 10,000 deposit can command positions of up to USD 1,000,000 through leverage. You can leverage the first USD 25,000 of your investment up to 100 times and additional collateral up to 50 times.
Profit potential in falling markets
Since the market is constantly moving, there are always trading opportunities, whether a currency is strengthening or weakening in relation to another currency. When you trade currencies, they literally work against each other. If the EURUSD declines, for example, it is because the US dollar gets stronger against the euro and vice versa. So, if you think the EURUSD will decline (that is, that the euro will weaken versus the dollar), you would sell EUR now and then later you buy euro back at a lower price. In case that the EURUSD indeed declines, then you can take your profit. The opposite trading scenario would occur if the EURUSD appreciates.
Important Forex Trading Terms
Spread
The spread is the difference between the price that you can sell currency at (Bid) and the price you can buy currency at (Ask). The spread on majors is usually 3 pips under normal market conditions. For more information on the trading conditions at Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your Client Station and open the section entitled “Trading Conditions” found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.
Pips
A pip is the smallest unit by which a cross price quote changes. When trading Forex you will often hear that there is a 3-pip spread when you trade the majors. This spread is revealed when you compare the bid and the ask price, for example EURUSD is quoted at a bid price of 0.9875 and an ask price of 0.9878. The difference is USD 0.0003, which is equal to 3 “pips”.
On a contract or position, the value of a pip can easily be calculated. You know that the EURUSD is quoted with four decimals, so all you have to do is cancel out the four zeros on the amount you trade and you will have the value of one pip. Thus, on a EURUSD 100,000 contract, one pip is USD 10. On a USDJPY 100,000 contract, one pip is equal to 1000 yen, because USDJPY is quoted with only two decimals.
Trading Scenario – Trading Rising Prices
If you believe that the euro will strengthen against the dollar you'll want to buy euro now and sell it back later at a higher price.
• You buy euro We quote EURUSD at Bid 0.9875 and Ask 0.9878, which means that you can sell 1 euro for 0.9875 USD or buy 1 euro for 0.9878 USD.
In this example you buy euro 100,000, at the quote price of 0.9878 (ask price) per euro.
• The market moves in your favor Later the market turns in favour of the euro and the EURUSD is now quoted at Bid 0.9894 and Ask 0.9896.
• Now you sell your euro and get the profit You sell euro at a Bid price of 0.9894.
• The profit is calculated as follows Sell price-buy price x size of trade
(0.9894 minus 0.9878) multiplied by 100.000 = USD 140 Profit
(Note that the profit or loss is always expressed in the secondary currency)
Trading Scenario – Trading Falling Prices
If, on the other hand, you believe that the euro will weaken against the dollar, you'll want to sell EURUSD.
• You sell euro We quote EURUSD at a Bid price of 0.9875 and Ask price of 0.9880 and you decide to sell euro 100,000 at a Bid price of 0.9875.
• The market moves in your favour The euro weakens against the dollar and the EURUSD is now quoted at bid 0.9744 and ask 0.9749.
• Now you buy back your euro You buy EUR at an ask price of 0.9749.
• Your profit/loss is then Sell price-buy price x size of trade
(0.9875 minus 0.9749) multiplied by 100.000 = USD 1260 Profit
Remember that trading EUR 100,000 as we have done in our examples, does not mean that you have to put up euro 100,000 yourself. On a 2% margin means that you have to deposit 2.0% of euro 100,000, which is euro 2,000 on margin as a guarantee for the future performance of your position.
Further Reading
To see how you can trade the Forex market and benefit from our toolbox of information and live quotes, please proceed to the Forex Quick Start found under the Trading menu of SaxoTrader.
Glossary
• Appreciation An increase in the value of a currency.
• Ask The price requested by the trader. This usually indicates the lowest price a seller will accept.
• Base currency The currency that the investor buys or sells (i.e. EUR in EURUSD).
• Bear Someone who believes prices are heading down. A bear market is one in which there has been a sustained fall in prices and which does not look like it will recover quickly.
• Bid The price offered by the trader. This usually indicates the highest price a purchaser will pay.
• Bid/Ask The Bid rate is the rate at which you can sell. The Ask (or offer) rate is the rate at which you can buy.
• Bull Someone who is optimistic about the market. A bull market is characterised by enthusiastic and sustained buying.
• cross When trading with currencies, the investor buys one currency with another. These two currencies form the cross: for example, EURUSD.
• Cross rate An exchange rate that is calculated from two other exchange rates.
• Depreciation/decline A fall in the value of a currency.
• Exchange rate What one currency is worth in terms of another, for example the Australian dollar might be worth 58 US cents or 70 yen.
Currencies traded freely on foreign-exchange markets have a spot rate (applying to trades settled “spot”, i.e., two working days hence) and a forward rate. Countries can determine their exchange rates in a variety of ways.
1. A floating exchange rate system where the currency finds its own level in the market.
2. A crawling or flexible peg system which is a combination of an officially fixed rate and frequent small adjustments which in theory work against a build-up of speculation about a revaluation or devaluation.
3. A fixed exchange-rate system where the value of the currency is set by the government and/or the central bank.
• EURUSD Means that you trade EUR against dollars. If you buy euro you pay in dollars and if you sell euro you receive dollars.
• FX, Forex, Foreign Exchange All names for the transaction of one currency for another, e.g. you buy GBP 100.00 with USD 150.25 or sell USD 150.25 for GBP 100.00.
• Interbank Short-term (often overnight) borrowing and lending between banks, as distinct from a banks business with their corporate clients or other financial institutions.
• Interest rate differential The yield spread between two otherwise comparable debt instruments denominated in different currencies.
• Leverage (gearing) The investor only funds part of the amount traded.
• Long To buy.
• Long position A position that increases its value if market prices increase.
• Liquid (-ity) The capacity to be converted easily and with minimum loss into cash. A liquid market is one in which there is enough activity to satisfy both buyers and sellers. Ultra-short-dated treasury notes are an example of a liquid investment.
• Margin The deposit required when entering into a position as well as to hold an open position. Your margin status can be monitored in the Account Summary.
• NYSE The New York Stock Exchange.
• Open position A position in a currency that has not yet been offset. For example, if you have bought 100,000 USDJPY, you have an open position in USDJPY until you offset it by selling 100,000 USDJPY, thus “closing” the position.
• Over the counter When trading takes place directly between two parties, rather than on an exchange. Over the counter trades can be customised whereas exchange-traded products are often standardised.
• Pips A pip is the smallest unit by which a Forex cross price quote changes. So if EURUSD bid is now quoted at 0.9767 and it moves up 2 pips, it will be quoted at 0.9769.
• Position Traders talk of “taking a position” which simply means buying or selling currency cross. “Position” can also refer to a trader's cash/securities/currencies balance, whether he or she is short of cash, has money to lend, is overbought or oversold in a currency, etc.
• Risk Trying to control outcomes to a known or predictable range of gains or losses. Risk management involves several steps which begin with a sound understanding of one's business and the exposures or risks that have to be covered to protect the value of that business. Then an assessment should be made of the types of variables that can affect the business and how best to protect against unwelcome outcomes. Consideration must also be given to the preferred risk profile – whether one is risk – averse or fairly aggressive in approach. This also involves deciding which instruments to use to manage risk and whether a natural hedge exists that can be used. Once undertaken, a risk-management strategy should be continually assessed for effectiveness and cost.
• Secondary currency (variable currency or counter currency) The currency that the investor trades the base currency against (i.e. USD in EURUSD).
• Short position A position that benefits from a decline in market prices.
• Short To sell.
• Speculative Buying and selling in the hope of making a profit, rather than doing so for some fundamental business-related need.
• Spot A Spot rate is the current market price of an asset.
• Spot market The part of the market calling for spot settlement of transactions. The precise meaning of “spot” will depend on local custom for a commodity, security or currency. In the UK, US and Australian foreign-exchange markets, “spot” means delivery two working days hence.
• Spread The difference between the bid and the ask rate.
This short introduction explains the basics of trading Forex online, a brief explanation of the markets and the major benefits of trading Forex online. There are also two scenarios describing the implications of trading in a bear as well as a bull market to better acquaint you with some of the risks and opportunities of the largest and most liquid market in the world.
As an additional aid for those who are new to Forex, there is also a glossary at the bottom of this text which explains some of the terms used in connection with currency trading.
Overview
Foreign exchange, Forex or just FX are all terms used to describe the trading of the world's many currencies. The Forex market is the largest market in the world, with trades amounting to more than USD 3 trillion every day. Most Forex trading is speculative, with only a low percentage of market activity representing governments' and companies' fundamental currency conversion needs.
Unlike trading on the stock market, the Forex market is not conducted by a central exchange, but on the “interbank” market, which is thought of as an OTC (over the counter) market. Trading takes place directly between the two counterparts necessary to make a trade, whether over the telephone or on electronic networks all over the world. The main centres for trading are Sydney, Tokyo, London, Frankfurt and New York. This worldwide distribution of trading centres means that the Forex market is a 24-hour market.
Trading Forex
A currency trade is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another one. The currency combination used in the trade is called a cross (for example, the euro/US dollar, or the GB pound/Japanese yen.). The most commonly traded currencies are the so-called “majors” – EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF and GBPUSD.
The most important Forex market is the spot market as it has the largest volume. The market is called the spot market because trades are settled immediately, or “on the spot”. In practice this means two banking days.
Forward Outrights
For forward outrights, settlement on the value date selected in the trade means that even though the trade itself is carried out immediately, there is a small interest rate calculation left. The interest rate differential doesn't usually affect trade considerations unless you plan on holding a position with a large differential for a long period of time. The interest rate differential varies according to the cross you are trading. On the USDCHF, for example, the interest rate differential is quite small, whereas the differential on NOKJPY is large. This is because if you trade e.g. NOKJPY, you get almost 7% (annual) interest in Norway and close to 0% in Japan. So, if you borrow money in Japan, to finance the trade and buying NOK, you have a positive interest rate differential. This differential has to be calculated and added to your account. You can have both a positive and a negative interest rate differential, so it may work for or against you when you make a trade.
Trading on Margin
Trading on margin means that you can buy and sell assets that represent more value than the capital in your account. Forex trading is usually conducted with relatively small margin deposits. This is useful since it permits investors to exploit currency exchange rate fluctuations which tend to be very small. A margin of 1.0% means you can trade up to USD 1,000,000 even though you only have USD 10,000 in your account. A margin of 1% corresponds to a 100:1 leverage (or “gearing”). (Because USD 10,000 is 1% of USD 1,000,000.) Using this much leverage enables you to make profits very quickly, but there is also a greater risk of incurring large losses and even being completely wiped out. Therefore, it is inadvisable to maximise your leveraging as the risks can be very high. For more information on the trading conditions of Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your SaxoTrader and open the section entitled “Trading Conditions” found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.
Why Trade Forex?
24 hour trading
One of the major advantages of trading Forex is the opportunity to trade 24 hours a day from Sunday evening (20:00 GMT) to Friday evening (22:00 GMT). This gives you a unique opportunity to react instantly to breaking news that is affecting the markets.
Superior liquidity
The Forex market is so liquid that there are always buyers and sellers to trade with. The liquidity of this market, especially that of the major currencies, helps ensure price stability and narrow spreads. The liquidity comes mainly from banks that provide liquidity to investors, companies, institutions and other currency market players.
No commissions
The fact that Forex is often traded without commissions makes it very attractive as an investment opportunity for investors who want to deal on a frequent basis.
Trading the “majors” is also cheaper than trading other cross because of the high level of liquidity. For more information on the trading conditions of Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your SaxoTrader and open the section entitled “Trading Conditions” found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.
100:1 Leverage
Leverage (gearing) enables you to hold a position worth up to 100 times more than your margin deposit. For example, a USD 10,000 deposit can command positions of up to USD 1,000,000 through leverage. You can leverage the first USD 25,000 of your investment up to 100 times and additional collateral up to 50 times.
Profit potential in falling markets
Since the market is constantly moving, there are always trading opportunities, whether a currency is strengthening or weakening in relation to another currency. When you trade currencies, they literally work against each other. If the EURUSD declines, for example, it is because the US dollar gets stronger against the euro and vice versa. So, if you think the EURUSD will decline (that is, that the euro will weaken versus the dollar), you would sell EUR now and then later you buy euro back at a lower price. In case that the EURUSD indeed declines, then you can take your profit. The opposite trading scenario would occur if the EURUSD appreciates.
Important Forex Trading Terms
Spread
The spread is the difference between the price that you can sell currency at (Bid) and the price you can buy currency at (Ask). The spread on majors is usually 3 pips under normal market conditions. For more information on the trading conditions at Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your Client Station and open the section entitled “Trading Conditions” found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.
Pips
A pip is the smallest unit by which a cross price quote changes. When trading Forex you will often hear that there is a 3-pip spread when you trade the majors. This spread is revealed when you compare the bid and the ask price, for example EURUSD is quoted at a bid price of 0.9875 and an ask price of 0.9878. The difference is USD 0.0003, which is equal to 3 “pips”.
On a contract or position, the value of a pip can easily be calculated. You know that the EURUSD is quoted with four decimals, so all you have to do is cancel out the four zeros on the amount you trade and you will have the value of one pip. Thus, on a EURUSD 100,000 contract, one pip is USD 10. On a USDJPY 100,000 contract, one pip is equal to 1000 yen, because USDJPY is quoted with only two decimals.
Trading Scenario – Trading Rising Prices
If you believe that the euro will strengthen against the dollar you'll want to buy euro now and sell it back later at a higher price.
• You buy euro We quote EURUSD at Bid 0.9875 and Ask 0.9878, which means that you can sell 1 euro for 0.9875 USD or buy 1 euro for 0.9878 USD.
In this example you buy euro 100,000, at the quote price of 0.9878 (ask price) per euro.
• The market moves in your favor Later the market turns in favour of the euro and the EURUSD is now quoted at Bid 0.9894 and Ask 0.9896.
• Now you sell your euro and get the profit You sell euro at a Bid price of 0.9894.
• The profit is calculated as follows Sell price-buy price x size of trade
(0.9894 minus 0.9878) multiplied by 100.000 = USD 140 Profit
(Note that the profit or loss is always expressed in the secondary currency)
Trading Scenario – Trading Falling Prices
If, on the other hand, you believe that the euro will weaken against the dollar, you'll want to sell EURUSD.
• You sell euro We quote EURUSD at a Bid price of 0.9875 and Ask price of 0.9880 and you decide to sell euro 100,000 at a Bid price of 0.9875.
• The market moves in your favour The euro weakens against the dollar and the EURUSD is now quoted at bid 0.9744 and ask 0.9749.
• Now you buy back your euro You buy EUR at an ask price of 0.9749.
• Your profit/loss is then Sell price-buy price x size of trade
(0.9875 minus 0.9749) multiplied by 100.000 = USD 1260 Profit
Remember that trading EUR 100,000 as we have done in our examples, does not mean that you have to put up euro 100,000 yourself. On a 2% margin means that you have to deposit 2.0% of euro 100,000, which is euro 2,000 on margin as a guarantee for the future performance of your position.
Further Reading
To see how you can trade the Forex market and benefit from our toolbox of information and live quotes, please proceed to the Forex Quick Start found under the Trading menu of SaxoTrader.
Glossary
• Appreciation An increase in the value of a currency.
• Ask The price requested by the trader. This usually indicates the lowest price a seller will accept.
• Base currency The currency that the investor buys or sells (i.e. EUR in EURUSD).
• Bear Someone who believes prices are heading down. A bear market is one in which there has been a sustained fall in prices and which does not look like it will recover quickly.
• Bid The price offered by the trader. This usually indicates the highest price a purchaser will pay.
• Bid/Ask The Bid rate is the rate at which you can sell. The Ask (or offer) rate is the rate at which you can buy.
• Bull Someone who is optimistic about the market. A bull market is characterised by enthusiastic and sustained buying.
• cross When trading with currencies, the investor buys one currency with another. These two currencies form the cross: for example, EURUSD.
• Cross rate An exchange rate that is calculated from two other exchange rates.
• Depreciation/decline A fall in the value of a currency.
• Exchange rate What one currency is worth in terms of another, for example the Australian dollar might be worth 58 US cents or 70 yen.
Currencies traded freely on foreign-exchange markets have a spot rate (applying to trades settled “spot”, i.e., two working days hence) and a forward rate. Countries can determine their exchange rates in a variety of ways.
1. A floating exchange rate system where the currency finds its own level in the market.
2. A crawling or flexible peg system which is a combination of an officially fixed rate and frequent small adjustments which in theory work against a build-up of speculation about a revaluation or devaluation.
3. A fixed exchange-rate system where the value of the currency is set by the government and/or the central bank.
• EURUSD Means that you trade EUR against dollars. If you buy euro you pay in dollars and if you sell euro you receive dollars.
• FX, Forex, Foreign Exchange All names for the transaction of one currency for another, e.g. you buy GBP 100.00 with USD 150.25 or sell USD 150.25 for GBP 100.00.
• Interbank Short-term (often overnight) borrowing and lending between banks, as distinct from a banks business with their corporate clients or other financial institutions.
• Interest rate differential The yield spread between two otherwise comparable debt instruments denominated in different currencies.
• Leverage (gearing) The investor only funds part of the amount traded.
• Long To buy.
• Long position A position that increases its value if market prices increase.
• Liquid (-ity) The capacity to be converted easily and with minimum loss into cash. A liquid market is one in which there is enough activity to satisfy both buyers and sellers. Ultra-short-dated treasury notes are an example of a liquid investment.
• Margin The deposit required when entering into a position as well as to hold an open position. Your margin status can be monitored in the Account Summary.
• NYSE The New York Stock Exchange.
• Open position A position in a currency that has not yet been offset. For example, if you have bought 100,000 USDJPY, you have an open position in USDJPY until you offset it by selling 100,000 USDJPY, thus “closing” the position.
• Over the counter When trading takes place directly between two parties, rather than on an exchange. Over the counter trades can be customised whereas exchange-traded products are often standardised.
• Pips A pip is the smallest unit by which a Forex cross price quote changes. So if EURUSD bid is now quoted at 0.9767 and it moves up 2 pips, it will be quoted at 0.9769.
• Position Traders talk of “taking a position” which simply means buying or selling currency cross. “Position” can also refer to a trader's cash/securities/currencies balance, whether he or she is short of cash, has money to lend, is overbought or oversold in a currency, etc.
• Risk Trying to control outcomes to a known or predictable range of gains or losses. Risk management involves several steps which begin with a sound understanding of one's business and the exposures or risks that have to be covered to protect the value of that business. Then an assessment should be made of the types of variables that can affect the business and how best to protect against unwelcome outcomes. Consideration must also be given to the preferred risk profile – whether one is risk – averse or fairly aggressive in approach. This also involves deciding which instruments to use to manage risk and whether a natural hedge exists that can be used. Once undertaken, a risk-management strategy should be continually assessed for effectiveness and cost.
• Secondary currency (variable currency or counter currency) The currency that the investor trades the base currency against (i.e. USD in EURUSD).
• Short position A position that benefits from a decline in market prices.
• Short To sell.
• Speculative Buying and selling in the hope of making a profit, rather than doing so for some fundamental business-related need.
• Spot A Spot rate is the current market price of an asset.
• Spot market The part of the market calling for spot settlement of transactions. The precise meaning of “spot” will depend on local custom for a commodity, security or currency. In the UK, US and Australian foreign-exchange markets, “spot” means delivery two working days hence.
• Spread The difference between the bid and the ask rate.
Monday, December 28, 2009
Forex Pivot
Forex Pivot:
A pivot point is a price level of significance in technical analysis of a financial market that is used by traders as a predictive indicator of market movement. A pivot point is calculated as an average of significant prices (high, low, close) from the performance of a market in the prior trading period. If the market in the following period trades above the pivot point it is usually evaluated as a bullish sentiment, whereas trading below the pivot point is seen as bearish.
Monthly pivot point chart of the Dow Jones Industrials average for the first 8 months of 2009, showing sets of first and second levels of resistance (green) and support (red). The pivot point levels are highlighted in yellow. Trading below the pivot point, particularly at the beginning of a trading period sets a bearish market sentiment and often results in further price decline, while trading above it, bullish price action may continue for some time.
It is customary to calculate additional levels of support and resistance, below and above the pivot point, respectively, by subtracting or adding price differentials calculated from previous trading ranges of the market.
A pivot point and the associated support and resistance levels are often turning points for the direction of price movement in a market. In an up-trending market, the pivot point and the resistance levels may represent a ceiling level in price above which the uptrend is no longer sustainable and a reversal may occur. In a declining market, a pivot point and the support levels may represent a low price level of stability or a resistance to further decline
Calculation
Several methods exist for calculating the pivot point (P) of a market. Most commonly, it is the arithmetic average of the high (H), low (L), and closing (C) prices of the market in the prior trading period:
P = (H + L + C) / 3.
Sometimes, the average also includes the previous period's or the current period's opening price (O):
P = (O + H + L + C) / 4.
In other cases, traders like to emphasize the closing price, P = (H + L + C + C) / 4, or the current periods opening price, P = (H + L + O + O) / 4.
Support and resistance levels
Price support and resistance levels are key trading tools in any market. Their roles may be interchangeable, depending on whether the price level is approached in an up-trending or a down-trending market. These price levels may be derived from many market assumptions and conventions. In pivot point analysis, several levels, usually three, are commonly recognized below and above the pivot point. These are calculated from the range of price movement in the previous trading period, added to the pivot point for resistances and subtracted from it for support levels.
The first and most significant level of support (S1) and resistance (R1) is obtained by recognition of the upper and the lower halves of the prior trading range, defined by the trading above the pivot point (H - P), and below it (P - L). The first resistance on the up-side of the market is given by the lower width of prior trading added to the pivot point price and the first support on the down-side is the width of the upper part of the prior trading range below the pivot point.
* R1 = P + (P - L) = 2×P - L
* S1 = P - (H - P) = 2×P - H
Thus, these level may simply be calculated by subtracting the previous low (L) and high (H) price, respectively, from twice the pivot point value:[1]
The second set of resistance (R2) and support (S2) levels are above and below, respectively, the first set. They are simply determined from the full width of the prior trading range (H - L), added to and subtracted from the pivot point, respectively:
* R2 = P + (H - L)
* S2 = P - (H - L)
Commonly a third set is also calculated, again representing another higher resistance level (R3) and a yet lower support level (S3). The method of the second set is continued by doubling the range added and subtracted from the pivot point:
* R3 = P + 2×(H - L)
* S3 = P - 2×(H - L)
This concept is sometimes, albeit rarely, extended to a fourth set in which the tripled value of the trading range is used in the calculation.
Qualitatively, the second and higher support and resistance levels are always located symmetrically around the pivot point, whereas this is not the case for the first levels, unless the pivot point happens to divide the prior trading range exactly in half.
A pivot point is a price level of significance in technical analysis of a financial market that is used by traders as a predictive indicator of market movement. A pivot point is calculated as an average of significant prices (high, low, close) from the performance of a market in the prior trading period. If the market in the following period trades above the pivot point it is usually evaluated as a bullish sentiment, whereas trading below the pivot point is seen as bearish.
Monthly pivot point chart of the Dow Jones Industrials average for the first 8 months of 2009, showing sets of first and second levels of resistance (green) and support (red). The pivot point levels are highlighted in yellow. Trading below the pivot point, particularly at the beginning of a trading period sets a bearish market sentiment and often results in further price decline, while trading above it, bullish price action may continue for some time.
It is customary to calculate additional levels of support and resistance, below and above the pivot point, respectively, by subtracting or adding price differentials calculated from previous trading ranges of the market.
A pivot point and the associated support and resistance levels are often turning points for the direction of price movement in a market. In an up-trending market, the pivot point and the resistance levels may represent a ceiling level in price above which the uptrend is no longer sustainable and a reversal may occur. In a declining market, a pivot point and the support levels may represent a low price level of stability or a resistance to further decline
Calculation
Several methods exist for calculating the pivot point (P) of a market. Most commonly, it is the arithmetic average of the high (H), low (L), and closing (C) prices of the market in the prior trading period:
P = (H + L + C) / 3.
Sometimes, the average also includes the previous period's or the current period's opening price (O):
P = (O + H + L + C) / 4.
In other cases, traders like to emphasize the closing price, P = (H + L + C + C) / 4, or the current periods opening price, P = (H + L + O + O) / 4.
Support and resistance levels
Price support and resistance levels are key trading tools in any market. Their roles may be interchangeable, depending on whether the price level is approached in an up-trending or a down-trending market. These price levels may be derived from many market assumptions and conventions. In pivot point analysis, several levels, usually three, are commonly recognized below and above the pivot point. These are calculated from the range of price movement in the previous trading period, added to the pivot point for resistances and subtracted from it for support levels.
The first and most significant level of support (S1) and resistance (R1) is obtained by recognition of the upper and the lower halves of the prior trading range, defined by the trading above the pivot point (H - P), and below it (P - L). The first resistance on the up-side of the market is given by the lower width of prior trading added to the pivot point price and the first support on the down-side is the width of the upper part of the prior trading range below the pivot point.
* R1 = P + (P - L) = 2×P - L
* S1 = P - (H - P) = 2×P - H
Thus, these level may simply be calculated by subtracting the previous low (L) and high (H) price, respectively, from twice the pivot point value:[1]
The second set of resistance (R2) and support (S2) levels are above and below, respectively, the first set. They are simply determined from the full width of the prior trading range (H - L), added to and subtracted from the pivot point, respectively:
* R2 = P + (H - L)
* S2 = P - (H - L)
Commonly a third set is also calculated, again representing another higher resistance level (R3) and a yet lower support level (S3). The method of the second set is continued by doubling the range added and subtracted from the pivot point:
* R3 = P + 2×(H - L)
* S3 = P - 2×(H - L)
This concept is sometimes, albeit rarely, extended to a fourth set in which the tripled value of the trading range is used in the calculation.
Qualitatively, the second and higher support and resistance levels are always located symmetrically around the pivot point, whereas this is not the case for the first levels, unless the pivot point happens to divide the prior trading range exactly in half.
Forex Swap
Forex Swap:
In finance, a forex swap (or FX swap) is a simultaneous purchase and sale of identical amounts of one currency for another with two different value dates (normally spot to forward)
Structure
A forex swap consists of two legs:
* a spot foreign exchange transaction, and
* a forward foreign exchange transaction.
These two legs are executed simultaneously for the same quantity, and therefore offset each other.
It is also common to trade forward-forward, where both transactions are for (different) forward dates.
Uses
By far and away the most common use of FX swaps is for institutions to fund their foreign exchange balances.
Once a foreign exchange transaction settles, the holder is left with a positive (or long) position in one currency, and a negative (or short) position in another. In order to collect or pay any overnight interest due on these foreign balances, at the end of every day institutions will close out any foreign balances and re-institute them for the following day. To do this they typically use tom-next swaps, buying (selling) a foreign amount settling tomorrow, and selling (buying) it back settling the day after.
The interest collected or paid every night is referred to as the cost of carry. As currency traders know roughly how much holding a currency position will make or cost on a daily basis, specific trades are put on based on this; these are referred to as carry trades.
Pricing
The relationship between spot and forward is as follows:
F = S \left( \frac{1+r_1}{1+r_2}\right)^T
where:
* F = forward rate
* S = spot rate
* r1 = simple interest rate of the term currency
* r2 = simple interest rate of the base currency
* T = tenor (calculated according to the appropriate day count convention)
The forward points or swap points are quoted as the difference between forward and spot, F - S, and is expressed as the following:
F - S = S \left[ \left(\frac{1+r_1}{1+r_2}\right)^T -1 \right] \approx S \left( e^\left(\left(r_1 - r_2\right)T\right) - 1\right)
where r1 and r2 are small. Thus, the absolute value of the swap points increases when the interest rate differential gets larger, and vice versa.
In finance, a forex swap (or FX swap) is a simultaneous purchase and sale of identical amounts of one currency for another with two different value dates (normally spot to forward)
Structure
A forex swap consists of two legs:
* a spot foreign exchange transaction, and
* a forward foreign exchange transaction.
These two legs are executed simultaneously for the same quantity, and therefore offset each other.
It is also common to trade forward-forward, where both transactions are for (different) forward dates.
Uses
By far and away the most common use of FX swaps is for institutions to fund their foreign exchange balances.
Once a foreign exchange transaction settles, the holder is left with a positive (or long) position in one currency, and a negative (or short) position in another. In order to collect or pay any overnight interest due on these foreign balances, at the end of every day institutions will close out any foreign balances and re-institute them for the following day. To do this they typically use tom-next swaps, buying (selling) a foreign amount settling tomorrow, and selling (buying) it back settling the day after.
The interest collected or paid every night is referred to as the cost of carry. As currency traders know roughly how much holding a currency position will make or cost on a daily basis, specific trades are put on based on this; these are referred to as carry trades.
Pricing
The relationship between spot and forward is as follows:
F = S \left( \frac{1+r_1}{1+r_2}\right)^T
where:
* F = forward rate
* S = spot rate
* r1 = simple interest rate of the term currency
* r2 = simple interest rate of the base currency
* T = tenor (calculated according to the appropriate day count convention)
The forward points or swap points are quoted as the difference between forward and spot, F - S, and is expressed as the following:
F - S = S \left[ \left(\frac{1+r_1}{1+r_2}\right)^T -1 \right] \approx S \left( e^\left(\left(r_1 - r_2\right)T\right) - 1\right)
where r1 and r2 are small. Thus, the absolute value of the swap points increases when the interest rate differential gets larger, and vice versa.
Forex Scam
Forex Scam:
A forex (or foreign exchange) scam is any trading scheme used to defraud traders by convincing them that they can expect to gain a high profit by trading in the foreign exchange market. Currency trading "has become the fraud du jour" as of early 2008, according to Michael Dunn of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.[1] But "the market has long been plagued by swindlers preying on the gullible," according to the New York Times.[2] "The average individual foreign-exchange-trading victim loses about $15,000, according to CFTC records" according to The Wall Street Journal.[3] The North American Securities Administrators Association says that "off-exchange forex trading by retail investors is at best extremely risky, and at worst, outright fraud."[4]
"In a typical case, investors may be promised tens of thousands of dollars in profits in just a few weeks or months, with an initial investment of only $5,000. Often, the investor’s money is never actually placed in the market through a legitimate dealer, but simply diverted – stolen – for the personal benefit of the con artists."[5]
In August, 2008 the CFTC set up a special task force to deal with growing foreign exchange fraud.”[6]
The forex market is a zero-sum game,[7] meaning that whatever one trader gains, another loses, except that brokerage commissions and other transaction costs are subtracted from the results of all traders, technically making forex a "negative-sum" game.
These scams might include churning of customer accounts for the purpose of generating commissions, selling software that is supposed to guide the customer to large profits,[8] improperly managed "managed accounts",[9] false advertising,[10] Ponzi schemes and outright fraud.[4][11] It also refers to any retail forex broker who indicates that trading foreign exchange is a low risk, high profit investment.[12]
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which loosely regulates the foreign exchange market in the United States, has noted an increase in the amount of unscrupulous activity in the non-bank foreign exchange industry.[13]
An official of the National Futures Association was quoted as saying, "Retail forex trading has increased dramatically over the past few years. Unfortunately, the amount of forex fraud has also increased dramatically."[14] Between 2001 and 2006 the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has prosecuted more than 80 cases involving the defrauding of more than 23,000 customers who lost $350 million. From 2001 to 2007, about 26,000 people lost $460 million in forex frauds.[1] CNN quoted Godfried De Vidts, President of the Financial Markets Association, a European body, as saying, "Banks have a duty to protect their customers and they should make sure customers understand what they are doing. Now if people go online, on non-bank portals, how is this control being done?"
Not beating the market
The foreign exchange market is a zero sum game[7] in which there are many experienced well-capitalized professional traders (e.g. working for banks) who can devote their attention full time to trading. An inexperienced retail trader will have a significant information disadvantage compared to these traders.
Although it is possible for a few experts to successfully arbitrage the market for an unusually large return, this does not mean that a larger number could earn the same returns even given the same tools, techniques and data sources. This is because the arbitrages are essentially drawn from a pool of finite size; although information about how to capture arbitrages is a nonrival good, the arbritrages themselves are a rival good. (To draw an analogy, the total amount of buried treasure on an island is the same, regardless of how many treasure hunters have bought copies of the treasure map.)
Retail traders are - almost by definition - undercapitalized. Thus they are subject to the problem of gambler's ruin. In a fair game (one with no information advantages) between two players that continues until one trader goes bankrupt, the player with the lower amount of capital has a higher probability of going bankrupt first. Since the retail speculator is effectively playing against the market as a whole - which has nearly infinite capital - he will almost certainly go bankrupt.
The retail trader always pays the bid/ask spread which makes his odds of winning less than those of a fair game. Additional costs may include margin interest, or if a spot position is kept open for more than one day the trade may be "resettled" each day, each time costing the full bid/ask spread.
According to the Wall Street Journal (Currency Markets Draw Speculation, Fraud July 26, 2005) "Even people running the trading shops warn clients against trying to time the market. 'If 15% of day traders are profitable,' says Drew Niv, chief executive of FXCM, 'I'd be surprised.' "[15]
Paul Belogour, the Managing Director of a Boston based retail forex trader, was quoted by the Financial Times as saying, "Trading foreign exchange is an excellent way for investors to find out how tough the markets really are. But I say to customers: if this is money you have worked hard for – that you cannot afford to lose – never, never invest in foreign exchange." [16]
[edit] The use of high leverage
By offering high leverage, the market maker encourages traders to trade extremely large positions. This increases the trading volume cleared by the market maker and increases his profits, but increases the risk that the trader will receive a margin call. While professional currency dealers (banks, hedge funds) never use more than 10:1 leverage, retail clients are generally offered leverage between 50:1 and 200:1[2].
A self-regulating body for the foreign exchange market, the National Futures Association, warns traders in a forex training presentation of the risk in trading currency. “As stated at the beginning of this program, off-exchange foreign currency trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all customers. The only funds that should ever be used to speculate in foreign currency trading, or any type of highly speculative investment, are funds that represent risk capital; in other words, funds you can afford to lose without affecting your financial situation.“ [17]
A forex (or foreign exchange) scam is any trading scheme used to defraud traders by convincing them that they can expect to gain a high profit by trading in the foreign exchange market. Currency trading "has become the fraud du jour" as of early 2008, according to Michael Dunn of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.[1] But "the market has long been plagued by swindlers preying on the gullible," according to the New York Times.[2] "The average individual foreign-exchange-trading victim loses about $15,000, according to CFTC records" according to The Wall Street Journal.[3] The North American Securities Administrators Association says that "off-exchange forex trading by retail investors is at best extremely risky, and at worst, outright fraud."[4]
"In a typical case, investors may be promised tens of thousands of dollars in profits in just a few weeks or months, with an initial investment of only $5,000. Often, the investor’s money is never actually placed in the market through a legitimate dealer, but simply diverted – stolen – for the personal benefit of the con artists."[5]
In August, 2008 the CFTC set up a special task force to deal with growing foreign exchange fraud.”[6]
The forex market is a zero-sum game,[7] meaning that whatever one trader gains, another loses, except that brokerage commissions and other transaction costs are subtracted from the results of all traders, technically making forex a "negative-sum" game.
These scams might include churning of customer accounts for the purpose of generating commissions, selling software that is supposed to guide the customer to large profits,[8] improperly managed "managed accounts",[9] false advertising,[10] Ponzi schemes and outright fraud.[4][11] It also refers to any retail forex broker who indicates that trading foreign exchange is a low risk, high profit investment.[12]
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which loosely regulates the foreign exchange market in the United States, has noted an increase in the amount of unscrupulous activity in the non-bank foreign exchange industry.[13]
An official of the National Futures Association was quoted as saying, "Retail forex trading has increased dramatically over the past few years. Unfortunately, the amount of forex fraud has also increased dramatically."[14] Between 2001 and 2006 the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has prosecuted more than 80 cases involving the defrauding of more than 23,000 customers who lost $350 million. From 2001 to 2007, about 26,000 people lost $460 million in forex frauds.[1] CNN quoted Godfried De Vidts, President of the Financial Markets Association, a European body, as saying, "Banks have a duty to protect their customers and they should make sure customers understand what they are doing. Now if people go online, on non-bank portals, how is this control being done?"
Not beating the market
The foreign exchange market is a zero sum game[7] in which there are many experienced well-capitalized professional traders (e.g. working for banks) who can devote their attention full time to trading. An inexperienced retail trader will have a significant information disadvantage compared to these traders.
Although it is possible for a few experts to successfully arbitrage the market for an unusually large return, this does not mean that a larger number could earn the same returns even given the same tools, techniques and data sources. This is because the arbitrages are essentially drawn from a pool of finite size; although information about how to capture arbitrages is a nonrival good, the arbritrages themselves are a rival good. (To draw an analogy, the total amount of buried treasure on an island is the same, regardless of how many treasure hunters have bought copies of the treasure map.)
Retail traders are - almost by definition - undercapitalized. Thus they are subject to the problem of gambler's ruin. In a fair game (one with no information advantages) between two players that continues until one trader goes bankrupt, the player with the lower amount of capital has a higher probability of going bankrupt first. Since the retail speculator is effectively playing against the market as a whole - which has nearly infinite capital - he will almost certainly go bankrupt.
The retail trader always pays the bid/ask spread which makes his odds of winning less than those of a fair game. Additional costs may include margin interest, or if a spot position is kept open for more than one day the trade may be "resettled" each day, each time costing the full bid/ask spread.
According to the Wall Street Journal (Currency Markets Draw Speculation, Fraud July 26, 2005) "Even people running the trading shops warn clients against trying to time the market. 'If 15% of day traders are profitable,' says Drew Niv, chief executive of FXCM, 'I'd be surprised.' "[15]
Paul Belogour, the Managing Director of a Boston based retail forex trader, was quoted by the Financial Times as saying, "Trading foreign exchange is an excellent way for investors to find out how tough the markets really are. But I say to customers: if this is money you have worked hard for – that you cannot afford to lose – never, never invest in foreign exchange." [16]
[edit] The use of high leverage
By offering high leverage, the market maker encourages traders to trade extremely large positions. This increases the trading volume cleared by the market maker and increases his profits, but increases the risk that the trader will receive a margin call. While professional currency dealers (banks, hedge funds) never use more than 10:1 leverage, retail clients are generally offered leverage between 50:1 and 200:1[2].
A self-regulating body for the foreign exchange market, the National Futures Association, warns traders in a forex training presentation of the risk in trading currency. “As stated at the beginning of this program, off-exchange foreign currency trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all customers. The only funds that should ever be used to speculate in foreign currency trading, or any type of highly speculative investment, are funds that represent risk capital; in other words, funds you can afford to lose without affecting your financial situation.“ [17]
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